Prior to the Coronavirus, the Seattle real estate market was on a tear, but this won't be the story of 2020. The local market is not likely to return to the same levels quickly, but remember--our current crisis is much different from the last recession, which was driven by dysfunction in the housing and mortgage markets. I expect local housing prices to be resilient in the face of COVID-19.
As a result of the pandemic, the number of new listings has dropped over 40% since early April.
When the Stay Home, Stay Healthy order was announced on March 23rd, the Seattle market all but paused completely. Governor Inslee later added real estate to the list of essential service, but with strict guidelines.
Brokers may now visit homes in person, but no more than two people can be inside a home at once. Open houses are still prohibited, but "live-stream open houses," hosted on services like Zoom and Facebook Live, are launching this week.
The NWMLS publishes data showing every time a keybox is accessed (mostly showings). You can see on the graph below how quickly showing activity rebounded once brokers were added to the list of the essential services on March 28th. Prior to then, brokers were limited to real estate activities that could be conducted from their homes.
Many sellers who currently occupy their homes are likely waiting to list due to concerns for their health or fear of lackluster buyer demand. Vacant homes, on the other hand, are being listed and many of those seem to sell quickly.
We're seeing early signs of a check-mark shaped recovery, characterized by a quick drop and a gradual recovery.
New listings appear to have bottomed out, and pending sales have increased week-over-week since mid-April, though still down significantly from the same period last year.
I've received dozens of messages about the recent closure of the West Seattle Bridge. It's too soon to predict how it will impact the West Seattle market, but I would imagine we won't see how this impacts demand until our economy is back up and running, and the 100,000 daily bridge commuters are funneled through new, inadequate routes.
I'll be watching its impact on the market closely as the weeks and months unfold and will provide periodic updates here.
If you'd like to read more about the new normal of home shopping, check out our recent post: Shopping for a new home (while you're stuck at home).
Thanks for reading!
Best,
Chad