A couple years ago, I heard Kyla Scanlon describe a “vibecession” as the phenomenon where the economic data looks okay, but the vibes are very much not okay.
The terms rings true today.
On paper, things look solid: unemployment is low, home prices are up, markets shockingly resilient.
But when you talk to people across industries, nearly everyone feels stretched, uncertain, stuck.
People are seeing their 401(k) perform well and their Zestimate inch up, but job security and morale feel fragile. That disconnect is real, and it’s weighing on major decisions like buying or selling a home.
Housing has been nursing a hangover for a couple of years. Not in terms of prices (which remain stubbornly high), but in terms of sales volumes.
The actual number of home sales the last few years is hovering at the same levels as in the depths of the Great Financial Crisis.
We're seeing fewer listings, fewer buyers, more cancelled contracts, and a general sense of “let’s wait it out.”
Good things take time.
And over the past two years, we've seen gradual recovery that will be sustainable if we leave it alone.
Let's look at the latest local housing numbers.
Prices perked up last month — up about 3% year-over-year in King County. It was the usual fall “last hurrah.” These sales mostly went under contract in September, when rates dipped to their lowest levels in nearly three years.
Inventory is the bigger story.
Active listings in October were up 43% YoY, surpassing 2019, widely thought of as our benchmark for a "normal" year. Homes are sitting longer, and sellers who need to sell are increasingly coming to market.
Meanwhile, buyers are active, but cautious (see above ☝️).
Rates, for once, are the good news:
~6.25% as of yesterday (near 3-year lows)
7.02% one year ago
7.58% two years ago
6.65% three years ago
3.23% four years ago (ouch 🤕)
But rates shouldn’t be a problem much longer since the administration is apparently floating a 50-year mortgage to address housing affordability. Maybe we can undo all the slow, careful work the Fed has done. ;)
(Kidding, of course. Pundits on both sides laughed off the headline-grabbing proposal by the White House this week.)
Thanks for reading!
Next month we’ll jump into some early 2026 predictions.
For now, enjoy Thanksgiving with those you love. I appreciate everyone who supports what I do — especially my family, who lets me do this weird job year after year.
Take care,
Chad