The market feels touchy. Maybe even a little vulnerable.
February was a month of whiplash.
After logging the longest market times of any January since the Great Recession, the Seattle housing market snapped back sharply. The February median was just 10 days on market — back to business as usual, at least on that front.
But zoom out a bit, and the picture gets murkier.
Closed sales fell 5.5% year-over-year in February. January closings hit their lowest level since 2009. New listings jumped 31% compared to last year, which is genuinely good news for buyers — but that supply is meeting softer demand.
Here are the February highlights:
Median sale price: $938,500 (+0.9% YoY, +10% MoM)
New listings: 2,102 (+31% YoY)
Closed sales: down 5.2% YoY
Pending sales: up 3.6% YoY
Median days on market: 10
Pending sales up 3.6% is the optimistic read — those are buyers who are active right now. But closed sales and overall volume tell a different story. Based on the slow start to 2026, a meaningful recovery in sales volume this year seems unlikely.
Bidding wars are still happening. Every week.
Here's the part that keeps things interesting: this Mercer Island home drew four offers in the first 24 hours. This West Seattle home had eight after three days on market — reportedly selling for 30%+ over list price. And our Normandy Park listing just closed at ~5% over list price with no contingencies.
Good houses, in the right spots, priced right, are still flying off the market.
We're in a bifurcated market: well-priced inventory creating fierce competition in some pockets, while overall volume stays near historic low levels. Both things are true at once.
The rate lock that won't quit
A big part of what's keeping the move-up market frozen is one stubborn number: more than half of homeowners with a mortgage still have rates below 4%. Trading a 3.something percent mortgage for a 6.anything% one is a difficult ask — financially and psychologically. Time is slowly eroding this...slowly...
A few weeks ago, rates briefly dipped near multi-year lows just below 6%. That window has closed. Ongoing conflict in Iran has pushed rates back up to around 6.4% today. 😕
This matters for the spring forecast. Seasonality is a powerful tailwind, and spring has historically been when things heat up. But beyond that near-term optimism, there may be pressure on prices unless affordability improves and confidence in the labor market firms up.
Some things are always true
In uncertain times, it helps to come back to what doesn't change. Here are a few evergreen housing mantras that ring true in any housing market:
The right house—not the "good deal." A lot of people get overly clever about value and think too little about fit — as Warren Buffett put it, it's better to get a good thing at a fair price than a fair thing at a good price. The most expensive mistake you can make is buying the wrong home.
If you can afford it and plan to stay 7+ years, buying probably still makes sense. Over that horizon, the math and the uncertainty both tend to work out.
Thinking of remodeling to keep your low rate? Unless you're on a fantastic lot and love your location, moving often makes more financial sense — especially if you're adding square footage.
A good property sells in any market — and a tricky one is always tricky. "Good" means a large audience: broad appeal, no deal-breakers, desirable location.
Listing prep always pays. The investment return our sellers see for things like paint, cleaning, landscaping and staging is a no-brainer in any market. Don't show up to the dance in sweats. 🕺