The Market Outlook, According to Realtor.com, Redfin, Zillow and Compass
Housing market predictions are part education, part entertainment. After a global pandemic, the rise of remote work and “Zoom towns,” and mortgage rates that doubled in a year, we’ve all learned the same lesson:
The biggest economic shifts often come from events no one predicted.
Still, housing outlooks from leading economists are useful. They help take the market’s temperature and highlight the trends experts think matter most.
This year, across predictions from the economic teams at Realtor.com, Redfin, Zillow, and Compass, there’s unusual consensus.
No bold outliers. No dramatic calls. Just a shared view of a market slowly finding its footing.
Redfin describes it as “The Great Housing Reset.”
Let’s jump in!
Mortgage Rates Will Average ~6.3% 📈
All the forecasts we looked at expect mortgage rates to stay in the low-to-mid 6% range throughout 2026. None are predicting a meaningful drop below 6%.
At this point, home buyers are adjusting rather than waiting for lower rates. And sellers (who are often buyers, too!) can’t rely on falling rates to incentivize buyers.
Home Prices Fall Behind Wages + Inflation 💰
Home prices are expected to rise slightly—or remain flat.
Every forecaster sees home prices growing slower than wages and inflation. So while nominal prices may inch up, in real terms, home prices will fall behind incomes, giving a small (but needed) boost to affordability in the year ahead.
Sales + Inventory: A Slow Thaw 🫠
Most forecasts call for 3–5% more home sales than 2025.
Annual home sales are hovering just above 30-year lows and show no signs they’ll improve quickly in the years ahead!
The Northeast and Midwest markets are poised to remain competitive due to lower inventory and strong home buyer demand, while parts of the South and West remain softer.
What that means: a modest bump in transactions, fewer bidding wars, and a market that rewards realistic pricing and good preparation.
The takeaway: No boom. No bust. More balance.
And of course, real estate is local. Your neighborhood, street, or HOA may behave very differently than others nearby.
If you’re curious how this applies to your home—or you’re considering a purchase or sale—skip the predictions and hit reply. I’m always happy to help you make sense of what’s happening in your neck of the woods.